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Advice on soccer betting and pre-match analysis

This article is a supplement of Sports Betting Advice article you can find here.

Soccer is favorite choice sport for many punters. So here you'll find some soccer specific betting advice and a few tips on soccer match analysis.

Before placing your bet you have to do a thorough match analysis. Study following factors: Type of match, is it a league match (what league?, what division?) or cup match, international match (friendly or some international competition)? Now it's obvious that in friendly's unexpected results occur more often. In some leagues like Italian first and second division, spanish second division, draw is more likely than in other leagues. Similar is with away wins in Scottish second division. Things to watch when analyzing match are: overall standings, win-draw-lost records and goal difference and again same stats, but separated to home matches and away matches. Very important factor is current form of the team, usually presented in last six games. Now look at the history, head to head stats and previous encounters. Some teams have not won on some fields for years. Look at individual player stats and their contribution to team play. Read news, monitor player suspensions and injuries, transfer speculations, relationships among players, manager, president and fans. Venue of the match, in what state is the pitch and what is the weather forecast? Who is refereeing? In short three major factors to take into calculations before placing bet are current team form, standings and history of past encounters.

Form is the major factor for bookies when they set their odds. Bookies will always lower odds for team in good form. That's why you should try to discover in-form teams before bookie does. You can do that by relaying on information how team plays, sometimes team plays good but results don't follow. But if you are lucky, results will come and your backing of this team will pay out. Form is usually monitored in last six games. Current form of the team should always be more important factor then standings.

Examine the situation. Sometimes it's enough for a two teams to draw to advance to next stage. Sometimes a better team has already secured top position and can calculate with the match outcome and even lose. Bookies are well aware of these and similar occurrences.

European teams have a bunch of matches to play. League games, one or two domestic cups, Champions league or UEFA league, international club championships and since top european teams have top players they also have to play all kinds od international games. It is very hard for teams to go to the finals of every competition due to the strain on players. They have to make some compromises. That's why you can sometimes predict some unexpected loses, but unexpected only at first glance.

Usually favorites have a shaky start to new season . This is the period to bet against favorites and backing underdogs. After several round results become more predictable.

Local derby's. These specific games have tendency to end up in a draw. A pressure is huge on players and managers. You have to take in mind prestige that teams are fighting for and probably a long tradition of previous encounters. Here standings and even form don't mean a lot.

Cup games. In these games managers often calculate. If a stronger team plays away they will usually satisfy with a small win or a draw and then finish up opponent at home. Or if team wins away with a lots of goals, they can play at home with a reserve squad (to rest some key players and avoid suspension) and then even lose.

Games against lower division clubs. Sometimes lower division clubs can put up a good fight against top teams. They can surprise anyone and even them selves with a good play. That's because players want to impress managers, and maybe a TV audience. Although they don't win so often, combined with handicap you can make some interesting bets.

When new manager takes control of a team players usually play better as they want to impress new manager. Club usually achieves better results in next few rounds.

Home field advantage. Bet Help says that 46% of matches end up with home win, 27% with a draw and 27% with an away win. That probabilities were calculated by analyzing 27 European leagues in a three years period.

About every third game ends up with unlikely result.

Bookies manipulate odds. Duh, you say!? Bookies have fear from favorites. That's because majority of people are backing up (betting on) favorites and bookies are afraid of large quantities of payout's. That's why bookies usually decrease odds on favorites by overestimating actual probability of favorite winning.

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